It’s Episode 120 and the pessimism party continues despite the fact the news just keeps coming in better than expected. Unemployment is at a 53-year low. Right now, we’ve got inflation continuing to come down and earnings better than expected. Could be a Goldilocks economy. But Wall Street doesn’t want you to think that. We’re going to get into it today.
On The Tipping Point, we’ve got a great guest today with Ryan’s friend Carrie Kerpen. She’s an entrepreneur who sold her business. We’re going to get really deep on the psychology of money.
The Fed has accomplished everything it set out to do
Overall you’re starting to see deflation, not inflation
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Raw materials, oil, corn, soybeans, and more are dropping in price dramatically, which means prices are coming down.
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The CPI came in at 4.9% – PPI at 2.3%
- Oil is down from $130 to $73
”I think they're done. I think they're going to pause.
Bob Payne
More good news on jobs and employment
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We’ve added another 1.1 million jobs this year
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155.8 million people are employed – the most ever in history
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In the last couple of months wages have been going up more than the inflation rate – it’s going to be so hard to put this economy in a recession this year
”We've added another 1.1 million jobs this year... 155.8 million employed.. the most ever in history. Meanwhile, all you hear about is how labor is going to fall off a cliff and ChatGPT is going to replace all of our jobs.
Ryan Payne
And yet, the pessimism continues from the media and Wall Street strategists
What’s remarkable is you look at the sentiment numbers among retail and investors institutional investors and the level of bearishness or negativity is at extreme levels. That’s usually a counter-indicator. The news keeps coming in surprisingly good, which we’ve advocated now for over a year.
”50% of Americans are feeling insecure about their bank deposits.. reality is, only 1 out of every 100 dollars is uninsured. The media would make you think every bank is going to fall apart.
Chris Payne
The Tipping Point
The perfect marriage of Risk Taking & Caution
with our guest Carrie Kerpen
Today we’re happy to have Carrie Kerpen on the show. She’s an entrepreneur, bestselling author, speaker, and global champion of women. She’s a co-founder and CEO of Likable Media, one of the very first digital media agencies ever. Carrie sold her business in 2021 and is the author of Work It Secrets of Success from the Boldest Women in the Business.
Carrie’s background can be described as “security over any form of risk.”
Carrie is from a solidly middle-class family with financially conservative parents, who were very focused on choosing careers that were as secure as possible. They avoided any kind of risk with their money, like the stock market or being self-employed.
The “Field of Dreams” wedding event that changed everything
Carrie’s perspective on risk started changing when she met and married the love of her life who has a larger-than-life personality – Mr. Dave Kerpen.
Dave’s dream wedding had to be something big to match his personality. Carrie put her marketing background to work, got creative, and came up with a plan – to buy out a sponsorship from a minor league affiliate of the New York Mets for the night. Their wedding event was a success and they raised money for charity too. It gained national and international press.
”I said.. we both love baseball. We're going to pitch a minor league park.
Carrie Kerpen
After that Carrie knew she could do anything – but she was still not a natural risk-taker
The sponsors came to them and encouraged them to start their own agency. They felt there was no way they couldn’t capitalize on that success.
A risk-averse entrepreneur needs a fearless partner
When they started Likeable Media, Carrie was a much more risk-averse entrepreneur while Dave has no problem with risk. Carrie was focused entirely on preservation, making sure they had enough money. She learned to tolerate risk over time, but she didn’t get comfortable with it until much later.
”..there were times throughout the entire thing when I was making seven figures, I was like, I could be homeless at any moment.
Carrie Kerpen
That balance worked really well for them going forward
They were making a healthy living in their business but Carrie wasn’t able to save a huge sum of money. She was dollar cost averaging in a brokerage account and putting money in 529s for the kids. She was ready to get out of the business and waited for valuations to be great.
Then they sold their successful business
Their successful formula of balancing their personalities once again became important in how they would manage their liquidity event. Carrie wanted to save and Dave wanted to invest.
Carrie knew the money wasn’t enough to live on the rest of their lives. She started thinking about how to generate money beyond this cash payout. Dave and Carrie had a lot of arguments about what to do with the money.
”.. why would I be scared when I have a pile of money? Because I gave up the annual money that I could count on..
Carrie Kerpen
Dave likes investing in early-stage startups – Carrie is a saver
They agreed to only invest money into riskier ventures that they felt they could lose and not be hurt by the loss. Also, they agreed to invest in women’s startups which is very important to Carrie. The rest of the money went to safer market investments and they have cash earning some interest. Plus they invested a bit in real estate.
”For those with a partner that has a different mindset.. understand, appreciate and respect their point of view and still have your own.
Carrie Kerpen
Hidden Facts of Finance
A Gallup poll revealed nearly half of Americans are worried about the safety of their bank deposits. Meanwhile, a whopping 99% of US bank deposits are under its normal $250,000 insurance limit.
We estimate that M2, our money supply, measured as M2, is still about $1 to $2 trillion above its pre-pandemic trend line.
