This week the 3 Paynes talk shop with fellow wealth manager Adam Johnson, founder of the Bullseye Brief newsletter. Previously, Adam anchored on Bloomberg Television, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and prominent investors. He has decades of investing experience at Wall Street firms. If you watch Fox Business, you’ve probably seen Ryan and Adam discussing the market with Maria Bartiromo.
Some of the topics discussed in this episode are inflation and the Fed, how robotics are improving productivity and company margins, why the media loves negativity, oil prices, the psychology of investing, and more!
Inflation is moderating – what will the Fed do?
- The Fed will likely continue the pause but even if they raise it one more time it will be inconsequential
- The Fed Fund futures market is signaling a cut next spring
- If you average CPI, PPI, and PCE the inflation rate is approximately 3.6% which is closer to the Fed’s target
Recession unlikely
- We still have a near-record number of people employed
- People are spending which is good for the economy and ultimately good for earnings
”If you look at the Fed fund futures market, there is a 91% chance of a rate cut sometime next spring.
Adam Johnson
”Earnings have come in way better than expected..
Chris Payne
Companies are benefiting from American ingenuity – AI and automation
- Adam visited a fully automated warehouse in upstate New York that features robots created by GXO Logistics – the largest third-party logistics provider in the world.
- AI and robotics are taking jobs in logistics and assembly lines.
- The warehouse can function 24/7 without lights, air conditioning, or heat, you don’t need to pay benefits. So productivity improves many, manyfold.
”I call it robot ballet.. they move around without bumping into each other because they're coordinated by artificial intelligence
Adam Johnson
”We're going to solve our labor shortage.. AI and automation will solve productivity.. two huge catalysts and why we're optimistic on the whole decade.
Ryan Payne
”In the 90s, every company benefited from being an internet company, so doesn't it make sense that AI is going to improve productivity in every company?
Bob Payne
Hidden Facts of Finance
Only about half of US households now pay for traditional TV, down from more than 90% in 2010. Cancellations are accelerating and margins are falling.
50% of children born after 2004 will live to more than 100. Ten years ago, 12% of the population was over 65. In the next ten years, an estimated 26% will be older than that.
Employees globally work almost a day at home per week. The number is greater in Canada, the United Kingdom, and the US. The lowest in Asia and France.
