Turns out inflation was transitory
People seem to be surprised by the fact that the Fed is looking to transition from raising rates to lowering rates. But the data has been there all along showing inflation has been coming down at a pretty healthy clip.
Without a recession, the Fed seems to have pulled off a soft landing and the data is strong:
- Record third-quarter earnings
- Record consumer spending
- Record household net worth
- Strong labor market
- Increasing productivity
”We went from.. is the Fed going to hike again? To, how many times are they going to cut next year?Ryan Payne
”..the economy has been extremely resilient.. we're having a high tech revolution.. artificial intelligence.. quantum computing..Bob Payne
$5.8 trillion in cash right now
There’s a record amount of money sitting in cash right now earning 5%. But the market is signaling rate cuts next year so that 5% will drop creating a reinvestment risk.
”Sitting in cash.. you’re not getting invested. I mean, you're going to completely miss the boat.Chris Payne
The Tipping Point
How financial fitness is like physical fitness
Working with a financial professional is kind of like having your own fitness trainer for your health, but instead for your financial health.
A fitness trainer will push you out of your physical comfort zone
A financial trainer will push you to stop procrastinating and do the painful things you don’t want to do like budgeting, strategizing, and saving.
A fitness trainer will outline a long-term plan for your fitness journey.
A financial trainer will show you that investing is about the long game, not instant gratification.
A fitness trainer will expect you to show up on schedule to work out and be accountable.
A financial trainer will keep you current, doing the important timely things like 401k contributions, tax loss swaps, R&D, and social security decisions.
”If you've had a big liquidity event.. you're ten years away from retirement or maybe you're retired now… you just can't afford to make the same mistakes.Ryan Payne
”You need to be accountable to making those decisions.. I think most of us are natural procrastinators, whether it comes to the gym or our financial plan.Bob Payne
Hidden Facts of Finance
The number of people on the planet has increased from 100 million people to 8 billion in the last 2000 years and has increased from 1 billion to 8 billion in just the past 200 years. However, in China, it’s not the same in 2022, there were just 956,000 births in China, the lowest on record. That’s down 50% from ten years ago.
Since the great financial crisis, the value of homes has increased faster than mortgage debt. As a result, on average, homeowners own 71% of their homes, up from just 45% in Q1 of 2012.
Surprisingly, Eli Lilly, with its newly approved weight loss drug, has suddenly capitulated, sitting in has suddenly catapulted it to number nine by market value with the S&P 500 at nearly 600 billion, up from less than 100 billion just five years ago.