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Payne Points of Wealth Podcast

The 2024 Vibecession Ep#163

By June 11, 2024No Comments

Perception vs. reality on the economy

It’s Episode 163 and there is a disconnect between perception of how the economy is doing vs. the numbers. We’re not in a recession, we’re in a “vibecession.” If you watch the financial news it seems everything is predicted on what Jerome Powell will say next. But we’ve noticed the overall economy is not as rate-sensitive as it used to be.

The vibe out there isn’t that great :00

Look at the numbers, things are pretty good 1:29

The Fed’s inflation target 3:52

The economy is not as rate-sensitive as it used to be 4:15

The inverted yield curve has the banks minting money 5:00

Nvidia is up 150% for the year 5:50

Meanwhile, 160 other companies are growing 25% a year 7:00

Housing market – shortage of houses and crazy prices 7:50

Speculation and overbuilding in resort areas 9:24

The Tipping Point

Aaron Dessen, CFP® improves one couple’s financial plan

Our guest and colleague Aaron Dessen, CFP® recently worked with a retired couple in their 70s who were looking for a second opinion on their financial plan.

Red flags he saw in their plan:

  1. Their portfolio was overweighted in large-cap growth stocks which is more risk than they should have at their age
  2. They were paying up to 1.5% in fees

His strategy:

Aaron recommended a less risky, well-diversified plan that increases the income on their portfolio consistently.


Hidden Facts of Finance

A record 22.3 million Americans are employed in health care, social assistance, 17 million in leisure and hospitality, another 23 million that work in government, mostly state and local. In contrast, all goods-producing industries combined employ just 22 million people, constituting only 10% of payroll employment, which used to be 30% back in the 1950s.

Light trucks now account for 81% of retail unit auto sales here in the U.S. That’s up 50% from ten years ago.

The vibesession is real. According to a recent Guardian survey, one in two Americans think stocks are down this year. Moreover, nearly three in five people believe the US economy is presently in a recession. Notably, 55% think the economy is contracting and 56% believe the US is in a full blown recession, even though U.S. GDP or economic growth has been up on an annualized basis for the last seven quarters.

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